Regarding the recent massive fires in Australia, it seems that everyone you hear from lately is blaming global warming. While global warming has certainly exacerbated fire conditions with higher temperatures and drier vegetation, changes in land use and land management practices and policies have also been major contributors. To blame global warming alone is simply refusing to admit responsibility for people building their homes in or near the forest, and for doing nowhere near enough to mitigate the fire risk for decades. Now it's "the world's fault" that people were surprised and unprepared when it all went up in flames.
Even worse, the sun is currently at the bottom of its 10.5 year cycle, so if they thought this was a record hot summer in Australia, and it was, just wait another 5 or 6 years until the sun is at the top of its cycle. Actually, by then Australia will probably be having heavy rains and flooding, as typically occurs with its cyclic climate. The cyclic nature of Australia's climate is so well known that it was written into a famous poem called "My Country" by Dorothea Mackellar in 1908 that speaks "of droughts and flooding rains", and "flood and fire and famine". Of course when these floods come, people will no doubt blame society and the world for them being unprepared again, and the politicians and university clowns will take it as an opportunity to sound important and knowledgeable, and tell people that we need to do something about it. Then another 20 years will pass and it'll happen again, and everyone will be surprised and unprepared again. We have long known that these large fire events occur in synchrony with the dry side of Australia's cyclic climate of droughts and floods, which has a periodicity of approximately 21 years, or two sun cycles. Yet people are surprised and unprepared every time it happens.
Even worse, the sun is currently at the bottom of its 10.5 year cycle, so if they thought this was a record hot summer in Australia, and it was, just wait another 5 or 6 years until the sun is at the top of its cycle. Actually, by then Australia will probably be having heavy rains and flooding, as typically occurs with its cyclic climate. The cyclic nature of Australia's climate is so well known that it was written into a famous poem called "My Country" by Dorothea Mackellar in 1908 that speaks "of droughts and flooding rains", and "flood and fire and famine". Of course when these floods come, people will no doubt blame society and the world for them being unprepared again, and the politicians and university clowns will take it as an opportunity to sound important and knowledgeable, and tell people that we need to do something about it. Then another 20 years will pass and it'll happen again, and everyone will be surprised and unprepared again. We have long known that these large fire events occur in synchrony with the dry side of Australia's cyclic climate of droughts and floods, which has a periodicity of approximately 21 years, or two sun cycles. Yet people are surprised and unprepared every time it happens.
To put things into a historical context, how was the Australian forest managed for most of the 50 million years of its existence? How was it managed for the 40,000 years before Europeans arrived in Australia? The Australian Aborigine's own land management practices, while not scientific, would never have allowed this to happen.
As I mentioned before, the infrequency of these mega-fires tends to catch people by surprise. If you can't backburn the forest to reduce fuel loads because of environmental policies or as a necessity to protect delicate species and forest ecosystems, then you have to expect these mega-fires to happen periodically. What's going on now is similar to the Canberra fires of 2003, same as the Ash Wednesday fires of 1983, same as the Black Saturday fires of 2009, same as the Tasmanian fires of 1967, the Victorian fires of 1969, the Dandenong fires of 1962, the Blue Mountains and Illawarra fires of 1968, the Sydney national parks fires of 1994, the deadly heat waves of 2000, 1993, 1981, 1973, 1959, 1939, 1927, 1921, 1912, 1908, 1896.
Yet people wonder why is this happening, why are we surprised and unprepared? It must be all global warming's fault.
Next these people who won't take responsibility for their own disaster will probably start telling each other to "Turn off the light, we need to save the planet". Meanwhile, in the overcrowded industrially developing countries where the western world exported most of its industries and their associated pollution, greenhouses gases are being released in vast quantities and remain largely unregulated by western governments. These are places such as China, Southeast Asia, India, Mexico, Eastern Europe, and parts of Africa.
To put my own personal bushfire experience into perspective, my childhood home in Australia burned down in a huge bushfire in January 2003. The entire countryside had been covered in smoke for months before that, an almost identical situation to what just happened. I remember flying over the Snowy Mountains on my way to and from Tasmania, and they looked like a giant steaming cauldron from the smoke and fire. The fire that burned down our house was a once in a lifetime event that left us surprised and unprepared. We didn't blame society or the world for our misfortune. Yet here we are nearly 20 years later and nothing has changed, except now it's "the world's fault", because people don't want to face up to the fact that decades of misguided land use and land management practices are the cause.
Even the President of the Australian Academy of Science, Professor John Shine, recently released a statement regarding the fires, which you can read here:
https://www.science.org.au/news-and-events/news-and-media-releases/statement-regarding-australian-bushfires
I don't know what qualifies a medical researcher such as Prof. Shine to speak with authority on the topic of bushfires, other than an entitlement from an academy that appears to contribute very little to society. Probably the "publish or perish" mentality of academia is one reason he feels the need to make a statement, just say something, anything! Once again, he seems more interested in the link between global warming and the recent bushfires, rather than the urbanization of forests and the failure to mitigate the fire risk over the last few decades.
I don't know what qualifies a medical researcher such as Prof. Shine to speak with authority on the topic of bushfires, other than an entitlement from an academy that appears to contribute very little to society. Probably the "publish or perish" mentality of academia is one reason he feels the need to make a statement, just say something, anything! Once again, he seems more interested in the link between global warming and the recent bushfires, rather than the urbanization of forests and the failure to mitigate the fire risk over the last few decades.
The failure of politicians and academics to understand and act on the problem is clear. To dismiss it as a result of global warming, that somehow "society" or "the world" are to blame, is merely an attempt to shift the blame from these people's failed policies and decades of inaction.
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Check out my parody message from the president of the Australian Academy of Science regarding the fires here. It also has some good information:
https://www.badperson.net/2020/01/a-message-from-president-of-australian.html
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Climate models have always predicted that global warming will make the dry places drier, that most of the warming will be in the higher latitudes, and extreme weather events will become more frequent. Possibly also the cyclic climate of Australia will have larger swings between the drought and flood parts of the cycle. One result of that will be more and bigger fires. I can't imagine how the world will look in a few hundred years when the accumulated greenhouse gas effects really start to kick in. I have a geologist friend who says it's not going to be as dramatic as the Permian-Triassic extinction, that was a massive event, but more like the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) of about 55 million years ago, with a 5-8°C temperature rise that lasts for about 100,000 years. In comparison, the PETM was caused by about a quarter of a gigaton of carbon being released into the atmosphere each year over a period of 50,000 years. Humans currently emit about 10 gigatons of carbon per year, so we can get there in only 1200 years. So what we're seeing now is really just the very smallest and earliest effects, just a taste of things to come. Global temperature has only risen a degree or so since 1900. We still potentially have another 4-7°C and another 1200 years to be something like the PETM.
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Check out my parody message from the president of the Australian Academy of Science regarding the fires here. It also has some good information:
https://www.badperson.net/2020/01/a-message-from-president-of-australian.html
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Climate models have always predicted that global warming will make the dry places drier, that most of the warming will be in the higher latitudes, and extreme weather events will become more frequent. Possibly also the cyclic climate of Australia will have larger swings between the drought and flood parts of the cycle. One result of that will be more and bigger fires. I can't imagine how the world will look in a few hundred years when the accumulated greenhouse gas effects really start to kick in. I have a geologist friend who says it's not going to be as dramatic as the Permian-Triassic extinction, that was a massive event, but more like the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) of about 55 million years ago, with a 5-8°C temperature rise that lasts for about 100,000 years. In comparison, the PETM was caused by about a quarter of a gigaton of carbon being released into the atmosphere each year over a period of 50,000 years. Humans currently emit about 10 gigatons of carbon per year, so we can get there in only 1200 years. So what we're seeing now is really just the very smallest and earliest effects, just a taste of things to come. Global temperature has only risen a degree or so since 1900. We still potentially have another 4-7°C and another 1200 years to be something like the PETM.
Coal mining is still increasing, it currently produces 40% of the world's electricity and will soon pass 50% to be become the world's leading source of electricity. China is currently building a ridiculous number of new coal fired power plants and is also the world's biggest coal producer. There are fun times ahead, but not for another few hundred years at least.
This is just the beginning. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.
-Dave Bad Person, PhD wanker
References
-Dave Bad Person, PhD wanker
References
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum
Here is my shortened version that I sent as a letter to the editor of the newspaper of Australia's national capital, The Canberra Times.
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Regarding recent fires, it seems everyone is blaming global warming, which exacerbates fire conditions, but mostly they’re saying it because they can’t admit responsibility for the urbanization of our forests, and for decades of inaction to mitigate fire risks. Now it's "the world's fault" they were unprepared when it all went up in flames.
Even Captain Cook wrote of massive fires as he sailed up the east coast. The plants of Australia have evolved and adapted to cope with fire, so it's been going on for millions of years. These big fires happen so infrequently that they catch people by surprise, but they're certainly not new.
Now people will say "Turn off the light, we need to save the planet". Meanwhile, in industrially developing countries where the western world exported most of its industries and their associated pollution, greenhouses gases are released in vast quantities and remain largely unregulated by western governments.
My childhood home in Duffy burned down in the 2003 fires. The entire southeast had been blanketed in smoke for weeks before that. We didn't blame the world for our misfortune. Yet here we are nearly 20 years later and nothing has changed. Rinse and repeat on a roughly 20-year cycle.
The failure of politicians and academics to understand and act on the problem is clear. To dismiss it as a result of global warming, that somehow "society" is to blame, is merely an attempt to shift the blame from these people's failed policies and decades of inaction.
Here is my shortened version that I sent as a letter to the editor of the newspaper of Australia's national capital, The Canberra Times.
--------
Regarding recent fires, it seems everyone is blaming global warming, which exacerbates fire conditions, but mostly they’re saying it because they can’t admit responsibility for the urbanization of our forests, and for decades of inaction to mitigate fire risks. Now it's "the world's fault" they were unprepared when it all went up in flames.
Even Captain Cook wrote of massive fires as he sailed up the east coast. The plants of Australia have evolved and adapted to cope with fire, so it's been going on for millions of years. These big fires happen so infrequently that they catch people by surprise, but they're certainly not new.
Now people will say "Turn off the light, we need to save the planet". Meanwhile, in industrially developing countries where the western world exported most of its industries and their associated pollution, greenhouses gases are released in vast quantities and remain largely unregulated by western governments.
My childhood home in Duffy burned down in the 2003 fires. The entire southeast had been blanketed in smoke for weeks before that. We didn't blame the world for our misfortune. Yet here we are nearly 20 years later and nothing has changed. Rinse and repeat on a roughly 20-year cycle.
The failure of politicians and academics to understand and act on the problem is clear. To dismiss it as a result of global warming, that somehow "society" is to blame, is merely an attempt to shift the blame from these people's failed policies and decades of inaction.
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